Friday, April 24, 2009

Live viewing on decline due to DVR

Variety
04/24/09

Digital video recorders continue to make life difficult for network programmers, as more and more Americans are opting to watch their favorite shows on their own timetables.

Nielsen says DVR penetration is up to 31% of U.S. households (vs. 24% at this time a year ago), and it's at an even higher 36% among adults 18-49 (up from 29% last year). As a result, shows that skew younger tend to be recorded and played back on a higher percentage basis.

A look at seasonlong averages for all primetime programs on the broadcast networks reveals that DVR playback is most popular among those adults who watch the least amount of television (those under 35). At the same time, those who watch more TV than anybody (the 50-plus crowd) generally watch more live television.

CW's modestly performing "90210" (with a median age of 30) is the most recorded series on a percentage basis, with its audience for original episodes rising 30% from 2.24 million live to 3.35 million when all same-week DVR playback is included.

And among the higher-rated tier of primetime programs, NBC's "The Office" (median age: 35) and "Heroes" (38) plus ABC's "Lost" (41) rank the highest, all garnering 28% or more of their aud via DVRs.

The popular shows that are watched live on the widest basis are those that skew older. Leading the way here is ABC's "Dancing With the Stars" (median age: 56), whose audience is 91.5% live. Also high on the list are a quartet of CBS crime dramas ("Cold Case," "Flashpoint," "Without a Trace" and "CSI: NY"), each of which derives roughly 90% of its aud from live viewing.

One big exception to the older-folks-watch-more-live TV trend is Fox's "The Simpsons," whose audience is roughly 87% live. This is due to its longtime, accessible timeslot (Sundays at 8), and it's one of the few scripted broadcast programs to be watched in large numbers by families.

ABC reality vet "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition" also falls into this category. Airing opposite "The Simpsons" on Sunday, this family fave is watched live 95% of the time.

Here are some other tidbits gleaned by looking at season-long DVR usage for original episodes:

  • In adults 18-49, the series showing the biggest ratings point jump from "live" to "live plus seven-day" are Fox's "American Idol" performance show (2.3 ratings points), ABC's "Grey's Anatomy" (2.2 points), the "Idol" results show (2.1), NBC's "The Office" (2.0) and ABC's "Lost" and Fox's "House" (both 1.9 points).

While these scripted leaders all see the biggest chunk of their growth come from playback in the six days following their broadcasts, the majority of DVR playback on "American Idol" is done the night it airs. Of the 2.3 ratings point gain for the Tuesday performance show, 1.5 comes from viewing done by 3 a.m. Wednesday (Nielsen's "same day" cutoff) and 0.8 of it comes sometime over the next six days.

A lot of this playback likely comes on a slightly delayed basis, as one of the beauties of the DVR is viewers have the ability to start a program late but then catch up to "real time" by fast-forwarding through commercials.

This makes sense because "American Idol" is one of today's few watercooler shows, and viewers can't participate in the discussion the next day if they haven't seen the performers. In other words, if NBC's Thursday lineup in the pre-DVR was "Must See (live) TV," Fox's "Idol" of 2009 is more like "Must See Sometime Before I Go to Bed" TV.

  • ABC's "Grey's Anatomy" is the clear leader in terms of 18-49 ratings points gained by playback in the six days following its broadcast. The show's firstrun episodes this season are averaging a 5.9 rating in "live plus same-day" but a 7.1 in "live plus seven- day."

This makes sense given that it airs in a very crowded timeslot (opposite "The Office" and "CSI"). Also ABC hasn't done that well on either side of "Grey's," making it less inviting for auds to watch the net's entire lineup live.

Behind "Grey's" 1.2 ratings point jump are six shows that rise by 0.9: NBC's "Heroes" and "The Office," Fox's "House" and "Fringe," ABC's "Lost" and CBS' "CSI."

  • Sports, not surprisingly, is the programming that is most watched live. NBC's "Sunday Night Football" jumps only 3% (to 16.3 million from 16 million) when all same-DVR playback is included.

  • And then there are those shows that are pretty much default TV, grabbing a decent sized aud of those flipping by on their remotes but not inspiring many to record them on their DVR.

Heading this list, due largely to airing on Saturday, are Fox's "Cops" and "America's Most Wanted" and CBS' "48 Hours Mystery," each of which garners less than 5% of its "live plus seven-day" average from DVR playback.

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